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Review of Domestic Aromatic Market and Future Prospect

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In January, the aromatics market as a whole showed a variety of bad conditions under the rapid decline in the state, first of all crude oil in the second half of December after the short-term rebound after the second half of the month Once again into the Powei down channel, especially in the New Year's Day after the rapid Powei 50 US dollars of the activities of the market caused a strong panic. Followed by a strong speculative activity, the market price and price problems have been pushed to the extreme, coupled with the long decline in crude oil has led to the theoretical cost of aromatics at a very low level, which prompted downstream procurement activities change Be more cautious and careful. Finally, with the shrinking demand, the market supply pressure is further improved: on the one hand is the domestic petrochemical enterprises because of the problem of oil expansion and the emergence of more aromatic export volume, on the other hand is about 90,000 tons of Asia Toluene will continue to arrive in the middle of the month in mid-January, if taking into account the current East China Port has 90,000 tons of inventory levels, even in accordance with the Treasury Island early expected downstream terminal in January demand may increase more conclusions to see , The future level of social inventory will remain stable in more than 100,000 tons ... ... aromatic market as a whole to re-break in the 5,000 yuan / ton, the toluene fell down at a minimum of 4300 yuan / ton, the minimum exploration of xylene to 4700 yuan / ton The And in the second half of the month, the overall market sentiment in the huge cost pressures and resources gradually concentrated on the impact and the role of speculative improvement, especially due to the long decline in crude oil after the market, a comprehensive loss of the situation to become difficult for traders Bear the heavy load, spontaneous defensive mood began to become very strong, so every time you encounter crude oil briefly stabilized, the market began to try to push up the price rebound, and most importantly, in the crude oil gradually accelerated down and aromatics down rate put Slow departure from the conditions, whether long or empty, there are 4,000 yuan / ton very strong bottom of the consensus, which makes the East China main market negotiations each approaching 4000-4300 yuan / ton price range, the super The rebound activity will soon follow. At the same time, due to crude oil as a key reference markings in the relatively wide range of $ 45- $ 48, there are signs of sideways consolidation, which makes support in the case of short covering activities and downstream demand before the Spring Festival, Speculation activities show a strong desire to rebound, but limited by the high social stock, petrochemical enterprises still maintain the high load level and the resulting terminal acceptance capacity is relatively slow and other issues, the market trend more performance into the second A concussion trend. Toluene xylene also shows differentiation characteristics due to its own resource dispersion and commercial demand for speculation: toluene with good liquidity is influenced by market sentiment and is directly associated with fluctuations in crude oil, while liquidity Weak but more concentrated resources of the xylene is showing a relatively weak trend but the characteristics of gentle fluctuations - this phenomenon has led to commercial activities as a representative of the toluene in the 4500-4800 yuan / ton range within the wide range of shock consolidation status.


As the domestic aromatics market in January continued to be the overall supply capacity is high and the main needs of the weak demand, coupled with the guidance of crude oil is always in a wide range of shocks to adjust the market, which in large part also delayed the downstream before the Spring Festival production Procurement activities, the market more stable performance sideways characteristics. Looking to the future market in February, the general situation is as follows:


First of all, crude oil as the most important factors of market sentiment, although in the vicinity of 40-45 dollars there is a large probability of the bottom may be, but because of the weak for a long time, so in the short term the possibility of overnight is almost non-existent. Taking into account the recent appreciation of the dollar, from the technical point of view, there may be short-term callback possibility, coupled with the US stock continued to increase and a record high, so in a wide range of repeated fluctuations and maintain the relative stability should be Crude oil in February the main tone.


Second, from the perspective of supply and demand perspective, on the one hand, there are indications that the domestic petrochemical enterprises in February despite the existence of a certain degree of reduction activities, but the earliest market transmission of large-scale parking reduction behavior is clearly does not exist , Although the future petrochemical enterprises may exist in the internal self-use, but the traditional Spring Festival off-season demand environment, in fact, is still more squeeze the limited market demand for more. If you take into account the current main port of East China is still close to 10 million tons of toluene inventory levels, the market supply pressure may actually be greater. On the other hand, as most downstream terminal factories have clearly expressed their intention to focus on parking leave around February 10-15, the shrinking demand is actually a clear problem.


Finally, the change in the outer disk in February will play the most critical guiding effect on the domestic market, the domestic embarrassing supply and demand situation may cause the market participants to synchronize the state of stalemate, so at this time, the market can only reference, The standard of practical significance can only be outside the disk to discuss the situation. And from the recent domestic terminal PTA operating rate is very stable situation, although the industry chain transmission will be delayed or the effect of reducing the problem, but generally in the depth of the loss of the market, the positive stability effect will be no words And metaphor.

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